Oil under pressure, but the chances of growth are high

oil prices on Tuesday decreased, developing correctional movements after a rollback from a resistance of $ 115 per barrel. Strong statistics from EIA could not hold the prices from the decline. Nevertheless, the potential for growth is preserved, since the softening of anti -icing restrictions in China and the high automobile season in the United States can provoke a jump in demand in the coming months. This morning, quotes are already restoring part of the losses of the previous day.

Russian oil

European Union introduced a modified Repowereu plan to abandon Russian oil, gas and coal. The exact term is not indicated, but it is emphasized that this can be “significantly earlier” 2030. The oil embargo plan remains unchanged, although this decision is actually blocking Hungary, and the prospects for the compromise are vague. The lack of new offers could reduce the confidence of the market that the EU would be able to come to a consensus in the near future. Another control point may be the EU summit in the last days of May.

Statistics from the USA

stocks Oil in the United States unexpectedly decreased by 3.4 million barrels. Against the expected growth of 1.4 million barrels. The reduction occurred, despite the increase in production from 11.8 to 11.9 million b/s and an export jump for 641 thousand b/s, up to 3.5 million b/s. From strategic reserves, 5 million barrels were issued, which were successfully absorbed in the market.

NPZ loading increased from 90% to 91.8%. The supplies of gasoline accelerated the decline by losing 4.8 million barrels. The reserves of distillates increased by 1.2 million barrels. The total supply of petroleum products, an indirect demand indicator, increased by 430 thousand b/s to 19.7 million b/s.

Despite such strong data, oil prices reacted only with a short -term surge, after which they continued to reduce. A similar dynamics was traced at gasoline prices, which yesterday fell by 5.6%. Reuters surveyed by experts refer to the growth of oil refining, which can provide a sufficient volume of fuel in the market in the near future. However, EIA data do not indicate some significant shift. Perhaps some kind of intra-industry information that is usually not tracked. In public space.

US dollar growth

a day earlier than the head of the US Federal Reserve in his public speech expressed his readiness to “act more aggressively” in the fight against inflation, if necessary. The formulations of the regulator are traditionally distinguished by vague, but the market took them as a signal about the possibility of a more active increase in the level of bets.

US dollar index reacted on Wednesday, bouncing by 0.6%. The indicator remains near 20-year-old maximums and can continue to grow. Ceteris paribus A strong US dollar exerts pressure on raw materials, as it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies.

This morning, Brent futures grow by 1.4% to the level of closing the previous day and are traded in the region of $ 110.6 per barrel.

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