In the dollar hunger
Trading week in risky capital markets begins inexpressive, but with some advantage of players to lower against the backdrop of the fall of morning futures on US indices. And the main session in the States will not be on the occasion of Independence Day. This will affect the European liquidity, closely tied to the dynamics of an American spot market. The trajectory of the global foreign exchange market is unchanged-the US dollar is in demand against the background of the risk and accelerated increase in the Fed’s rates due to inflation. And that means that The devaluation trends in the euro and yen are preserved, and the EUR and USD parity is still permissible. Meanwhile, the ruble was finally weakened-both technical and fundamental factors accumulated in the dialects affected.
in the energy market notes the disunity of contracts. So, if in Europe, gas rises rises for geopolitical reasons, then in the United States, futures collapse due to increasing reserves. But Brent oil has high chances of the next throw to $ 115 with the current $ 111.5+.
Russian ruble on Friday Strongly weakened. Euro flew to 58 rubles. As the nearest landmarks of the dollar, region 56 was marked. In the moment of the USD/RUB pair reached 55.8, which is a minimum of May, after which a pair occurred from the level. In fact, the previous support was already tested, which is already resisting. If the market participants to weaken the ruble will still be able to overcome the level, we can talk about the development of the course to 60+. And there are arguments for this.
, firstly, the authorities continued currency softening, increasing the transfer limit Invale abroad for citizens. Secondly, there are signals to restore imports. Thirdly, the Ministry of Finance made the announcement of interventions through the currencies of friendly countries, and the dollar and the euro are already on this are indirect support.
by the way, the latter factor is associated with a stronger dynamics of CNY/RUB – the couple took off on Friday above 9 rubles, and the potential is not exhausted. Earlier at the very bottom of the yuan of 7.5 rubles. We have published a detailed assessment of the prospects for the Cilen of the Celestial Empire, and it is confirmed. On the horizon of 2022, a guideline in Yuanny all The bar is still 10 rubles.
US dollar index (DXY: 105.1 p.) Is climbing to the 20-year-old maximum delivered last June. On the wave of technical correction of the tool, the maximum that was tested – the area below 104 p., Since the US monetary driver is only intensifying: the Fed speeds up the normalization of the DCP, seeing record inflation. The dollar factor plays against reserve currencies and acts as a driver of weakening the accelerates of countries with a developing economy.
oil is traded above $ 111.5. Weakness The middle of the last week has gone, since the threats of the embargo of energy from Russia from the EU or the introduction of barrier -conting price planks G7 are growing. Against such a background, there is no need to talk about a decrease in geopolitical risk-premium in exchange contracts, which means that the closest goal is up to $ 115 can be achieved quickly enough. Medium -term grades do not exclude the casting of contracts even to the peaks of the year. The raw material factor favors the trade balance of Russia that is extrapolated on the ruble trajectory. In the II half of the year there may be progress In imports – and the energy component of the stability of the Russian national currency can slightly weaken.
Index of the GOO -Beligation of Russia (RGBI: 134.3 p.) Closed a week relatively weak, although he showed the maximums of the year in the moment. Assessments of the level of level 135 p. Implemented, and now the further extensive potential for strengthening the prices of OFZ and the fall of their revenues is not visible. The maximum plan for 2022, in fact, was fulfilled.
current quotes of statebonds reflect the trajectory of the key rate of the Central Bank, and the prices of papers reacted The lead, laying a sharp reduction in inflation expectations and the return of the funding rate to pre -crisis levels. There is no great potential in RGBI either, since the monetary cycle is not over, residents are disconnected from the financial market, and liquidity is normalized.
